Specter Defeat Signals a Wave Against Incumbents

By JEFF ZELENY and CARL HULSE

Published: May 18, 2010 - New York Times

WASHINGTON — Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who left the Republican Party a year ago in hopes of salvaging a 30-year career, was rejected on Tuesday by Democratic primary voters, with Representative Joe Sestak winning the party’s nomination on an anti-incumbent wave that is defining the midterm elections.

In Kentucky, Rand Paul, the most visible symbol of the Tea Party movement, easily won the Republican Senate primary and delivered a significant blow to the Republican establishment. His 24-point victory over Trey Grayson, who was supported by the most powerful Republican on Capitol Hill, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, underscored the anti-Washington sentiment echoing across the country.

The outcomes of both contests, along with a Democratic primary in Arkansas that pushed Senator Blanche Lincoln into a runoff election in June, illustrated anew the serious threats both parties face from candidates who are able to portray themselves as outsiders and eager to shake up the system.

“I have a message, a message from the Tea Party, a message that is loud and clear and does not mince words,” Mr. Paul said in his victory speech in Bowling Green, Ky. “We have come to take our government back.”

In a bright spot for Democrats on Tuesday, the party retained the seat of the late Representative John P. Murtha in southwestern Pennsylvania.

The outcome, in a district that Senator John F. Kerry carried for the Democrats in the 2004 presidential race and Senator John McCain for the Republicans four years later, gave Democrats confidence that they can hold off Republicans in hotly contested regions, despite the difficult political climate for them and President Obama.

It was the biggest primary day so far in the midterm election year, as voters in Arkansas, Pennsylvania and Oregon selected Congressional candidates for the fall, providing fresh opportunities for Republicans and Democrats to vent their anger over the size of government, the federal budget deficit and many policies of the Obama administration.

The primary elections on Tuesday helped set the stage for a turbulent five-month campaign, with Republicans hoping to wrest control of the House and Senate from Democrats and win several governors’ races across the country.

The results were sobering for both parties, amounting to a rejection of candidates selected and backed by leaders in Washington who found themselves out of step with their electorates.

Republicans and Democrats alike are now left to learn the lessons from the frustration being expressed by voters, and to unify behind nominees who face daunting general election campaigns.

On the Democratic side, organized labor, which invested millions into the races in Pennsylvania and Arkansas, did not achieve a victory in either state. On the right, another show of Tea Party strength left the Republican party leadership scrambling to reconnect with the grassroots.

As Mr. Paul’s victory was announced Tuesday evening, a crowd of supporters gathered around the fireplace at his victory party at the Bowling Green Country Club erupted in cheers. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Paul led Mr. Grayson by 24 percentage points.

“It’s just a tremendous mandate for the Tea Party,” Mr. Paul said. “It cannot be overstated that people want something new, they don’t want the same old, same old politicians. They think the system is broken and needs new blood.”

In November, Mr. Paul will face Jack Conway, the Kentucky attorney general, who won the Democratic nomination.

Mr. Specter, 80, lost his bid for a sixth term despite the backing of a wide swath of the Democratic Party leadership, from Mr. Obama and the White House to Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania.

“It’s been a great privilege to serve the people of Pennsylvania,” said Mr. Specter, looking drawn and downcast as he delivered a brief concession speech. With nearly all the vote counted, Mr. Sestak had 54 percent, compared with Mr. Specter’s 46 percent.

Mr. Specter won the backing of the White House after his decision last year to switch parties and help provide Democrats with a 60-vote majority in the Senate, but Mr. Sestak embarked on an aggressive campaign that sought to remind voters of what he portrayed as his opponent’s politically expedient change.

Mr. Specter was trying to make the case that his seniority and experience were needed in Congress to help his economically struggling state while Mr. Sestak, in a cuttingly effective television advertisement, tried to raise trust and credibility questions about Mr. Specter because of his long history as a Republican.

Though Mr. Obama made an automated telephone call on Mr. Specter’s behalf and was featured in advertisements, he did not make a final visit to the state on the senator’s account and made an appearance on Tuesday in Ohio instead.

Mr. Sestak, smiling broadly on Tuesday evening, declared victory by pointedly noting that he had stood up to his own party “when that party doesn’t get it right for us.”

“It’s no surprise that people wanted change,” he said. “When I went to Congress just a few years ago, after 31 years in the wonderful United States Navy, I found too many career politicians are a bit too concerned about keeping their jobs, rather than serving the public and rather than helping the people.”

Mr. Rendell, in an interview before the polls closed, cautioned against drawing broad conclusions from the results, and said Mr. Specter and most incumbents were running in a difficult environment. He said Mr. Specter and Mr. Sestak had cast similar voters over the past year, particularly on the health care and economic stimulus bills.

“In fairness to Arlen,” Mr. Rendell said, “if the economy was ok and there was no anti-incumbent wave, this wouldn’t have been a close election.”

In addition to the primary contests, the special election in Southwestern Pennsylvania suggested that Democrats were able to score victories in this challenging political environment. Mark Critz, a former aide to Mr. Murtha, defeated Tim Burns, a Republican businessman. With 95 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Critz had 53 percent, compared with 45 percent for Mr. Burns.

Though Democrats dominate in the district, its voters are blue-collar conservatives and it is exactly the type of swing district carried by Senator John McCain in the 2008 presidential race that Republicans must win if they are to reach their goal of taking control of the House in November. The loss dealt a blow to Republicans, who have been raising expectations for the fall.

“If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?” asked Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman from Virginia, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong.

Yet other Republican leaders hailed the primary outcomes in the Senate on Tuesday evening as a sign that the anti-government mood echoing across the country will benefit the party in November.

Senator Jim DeMint, the South Carolina Republican who is chairman of the Senate Conservative Fund, an organization that has been supporting conservative candidates in Republican primaries, hailed Mr. Paul’s victory in Kentucky as a defeat of the Washington political establishment.

“The Washington establishment threw everything they had at him and yet he prevailed,” Mr. DeMint said. “Rand’s victory is part of an American awakening that is taking place across the country as people embrace the principles of freedom that are the backbone of our country.”

Mr. Paul, the son of Representative Ron Paul of Texas, whose quixotic bid for president in 2008 helped inspire the Tea Party movement, built his campaign on a message of term limits and smaller government.

Shaila Dewan contributed reporting from Little Rock, Ark., Kate Zernike from Bowling Green, Ky. and Katharine Q. Seelye from Philadelphia.